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On Verlander's Cy Young chances, Kyle Singler and Chris Osgood
I've voted for the American League Cy Young Award at times. And if I had a vote this year, and the season ended today, I'd vote for the Angels' Jered Weaver, not the Tigers' Justin Verlander. Weaver has just as many wins ((9) - and a lower ERA. Believe it or not, he is having a better season than Verlander.
- Kyle Singler was a great college player at Duke. Truly decorated. I remember watching him play against Kevin Love in the high school state title games in Oregon. Excellent games. But in reality, Singler just seems too slow and unathletic to have much of an impact in the NBA. I can't envision him doing that much for the Pistons.
- With Joey MacDonald electing to go elsewhere, and Thomas McCollum not anywhere near ready to play in the NHL, will it open the door for the return of Chris Osgood to the Red Wings? I doubt it. It's one thing to play ineffectively, but another to not be able to even get on the ice. Ozzie's injury issues the last two seasons would make it difficult for the Red Wings to justify his return. The Red Wings will likely have acquire a goalie via free agency or a trade.
- Kyle Singler was a great college player at Duke. Truly decorated. I remember watching him play against Kevin Love in the high school state title games in Oregon. Excellent games. But in reality, Singler just seems too slow and unathletic to have much of an impact in the NBA. I can't envision him doing that much for the Pistons.
- With Joey MacDonald electing to go elsewhere, and Thomas McCollum not anywhere near ready to play in the NHL, will it open the door for the return of Chris Osgood to the Red Wings? I doubt it. It's one thing to play ineffectively, but another to not be able to even get on the ice. Ozzie's injury issues the last two seasons would make it difficult for the Red Wings to justify his return. The Red Wings will likely have acquire a goalie via free agency or a trade.
Labels: Justin Verlander Jered Weaver Kyle Singler Joey MacDonald Chris Osgood Thomas McCullom
posted by Pat Caputo at
1:16 AM
7 Comments:
Color me amazed. A couple years ago you thought Verlander should win it over Greinke when he had his otherworldly season.
I think Verlander's a LOT closer to deserving it this year than in 2009, but yeah, I'd probably give a slight edge to Weaver so far. But I still think Verlander is the favorite for the Cy Young at this point. I don't see him cooling off anytime soon.
Pat, this is a tough choice but I slightly lean towards Verlander . The Angels are way better defensively than the Tigers. The Tigers are in the bottom third of the league defensively and I think the Angels are in the top 7. Believe or not I think Tigers relief pitching is near the bottom of the league and the Angel are in the upper half. The Angel’s defense and better relief pitching makes it easier for Weaver to win games and have a lower ERA.
I would give the edge to Verlander. The only category that Weaver has him on is ERA. Verlander's WHIP at .85 is amazing. Verlander also has a no-hitter and was 5 outs from a second no-hitter.
Have to disagree. Verlander's era is down (2.38) and as others noted, Weaver has a better defense behind him.
You like many CY voters may not be impressed by 14 K's in 8 innings, or KO totals -- okay, whatever. The guy is dominating, moreso than anyone else. Present a contrary argument if you can.
Verlander is hands down the most dominant pitcher in the AL and on track to deserve the CY whether you guys vote it to him or not, if he keeps this up.
Pat makes the mistake of not looking taking a deeper look at the stats. At this time of year a hot streak or slow start can skew numbers. Looking at the numbers by month paints a very interesting picture.
I used FIP to eliminate the impact of defense FIP=((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + 2.95) and calculated it by month for Weaver and Verlander.
Here are the results for April/May/June/Year to Date
Weaver - 2.11/2.95/4.21/2.48
Verlander - 3.56/3.02/1.78/2.83
Clearly the two players are going in opposite directions. Weaver had a very hot April, returned to normal in May and is below normal in June. Verlander had a slow start, like he normally does, returned to normal in May and is doing something amazing in June.
If Weaver continues to struggle (June's 4.21), or even returns to normal (2.90), Verlander will pass him, stats-wise, possibly before the All-Star break.
Justin will cool-off from his amazing June, but he is putting together an amazing season and I would place my bet that his numbers will be much better that Weaver's at season end, even if Weaver has another great year.
RPB1234, impressive, you should get Cuputo's vote as you use an objective and broader take.
By the way, I still stand on my statistical overview that Minny has a ghost of a chance to come back this year.
If they play to a .600 win percentage the rest of the way, they are 82-80. At .580, only 81-81. Finished.
And only two teams, Yanks and Philly are playing over a 0.580 win percentage.
While adding today's performance for Weaver to my calculations I realized I had made an error in his June numbers.
Weaver's April/May/June/YTD FIP line should be:
2.11/2.95/2.39/2.46
He is also having a great year and has improved his June performance over his May return to normal. However, JV's June is significantly better, and the longer he keeps this up he will make up for his slow start and pass Weaver, so I still JV as the better Cy Young candidate.
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