Tuesday, May 29, 2012
To this point, the Detroit Lions decision to draft Nick Fairley has been an unmitigated disaster
My column: http://bit.ly/KYFzO9
Monday, May 28, 2012
Why it's fair to question whether the Lions made a huge mistake drafting Nick Fairley
Hindsight is always 20-20. I thought the Lions made a great selection landing defensive tackle Nick Fairley with the 13th overall pick in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Seemed almost too good to be true he was still there, which is proving to be the case given his off-the-field conduct.
When Auburn won the BCS national title 2010, Fairley was to the Tigers' defense was Cam Newton was to the offense. He controlled games. There were suggestions before the draft that there were "character issues" involving Fairley, but they sure didn't translate to the field. When he was introduced to the Detroit media, Fairley did say all the right things.
But it is turning out there might have been reasons besides a run on quarterbacks that a dozen teams passed on Fairley in the draft. Two recent well-documented off-the-field issues have brought them to the forefront.
There are some issues that are obviously there, issues the Lions either didn't research properly and discover, or knew about and thought wouldn't matter. And they do matter. Fairley, whose injury-plagued rookie season netted just 15 tackles and a sack, could already be facing suspension from the league. Odds have gone up considerably that he will be bust rather than a star or even serviceable player. If that does prove to be the case, the Lions will have nobody else but themselves to blame.
Seemed almost too good to be true he was still there, which is proving to be the case given his off-the-field conduct.
When Auburn won the BCS national title 2010, Fairley was to the Tigers' defense was Cam Newton was to the offense. He controlled games. There were suggestions before the draft that there were "character issues" involving Fairley, but they sure didn't translate to the field. When he was introduced to the Detroit media, Fairley did say all the right things.But it is turning out there might have been reasons besides a run on quarterbacks that a dozen teams passed on Fairley in the draft. Two recent well-documented off-the-field issues have brought them to the forefront.
There are some issues that are obviously there, issues the Lions either didn't research properly and discover, or knew about and thought wouldn't matter. And they do matter. Fairley, whose injury-plagued rookie season netted just 15 tackles and a sack, could already be facing suspension from the league. Odds have gone up considerably that he will be bust rather than a star or even serviceable player. If that does prove to be the case, the Lions will have nobody else but themselves to blame.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Why Prince Fielder at first and Miguel Cabrera at third is backfiring badly on the Detroit Tigers
At the beginning of this season, one of the major issues surrounding the Tigers was how good they would be defensively with Prince Fielder at first base and Miguel Cabrera at third base. The answer: So far, not good. It was expected Cabrera would have some problems at third. I thought he would be disaster at third. He hasn't played as poorly as I anticipated, but he hasn't been even an average major league defender at the position, either.
What I didn't anticipate was Prince Fielder's struggles at first. He has been terrible there the last week (three errors, all costly). These are the numbers. They speak for themselves. And nobody can defend these stats based on "the reason they make so many errors is because of their range and they get to a lot of balls...."
- Both Fielder and Cabrera have six errors, one behind the American League leader regardless of position, Baltimore Orioles second baseman Robert Andino.
- There are only 10 players in the AL with six or more errors.
- Besides Fielder, no AL first baseman has six errors or five errors. Only one AL first baseman has four errors (Toronto's Adam Lind). Only one AL first baseman has three (Baltimore's Chris Davis). The rest have two or fewer.
- Fielder's .983 fielding percentage ranks at the bottom of those with enough chances to be listed on the MLB.com's stats site. No other first baseman listed is below .991. Cabrera's .946 fielding percentage is last among AL third basemen.
- Last year, Cabrera led AL first baseman in errors with 13 (by three) and had the worst fielding percentage at the position, .991. Fielder's fielding percentage this season is considerably worse (.983) and he is on pace to make 23 errors this season.
- The timing of Fielder's errors have been costly, especially the last two. Last Thursday vs Minnesota, he missed a throw to first base by pitcher Doug Fister for an error. The hitter, Josh Willingham, ended up on third and scored when Justin Morneau grounded out. It made a 3-0 game in the fifth inning a 4-0 game. The Tigers rallied late in the game, but lost it, 4-3. The miscue directly led to the deciding run
- Wednesday, with runners on a second and third and one out in the eighth inning of a 2-2 game, Travis Hafner of the Indians hit a routine grounder to first. Fielder threw the ball into the dirt, Tigers catcher Alex Avila couldn't hold it and Jason Kipnis scored the go-ahead run. The next hitter, Carlos Santana flew out, but instead of ending the inning, because of Fielder's error, it resulted in a sacrifice fly.
Early in the season, when people would compare this team to 2008's disaster, I didn't see it. But honestly, the last week, the Tigers have played the exact same way.
Their fielding has been awful, and it's started at the two corner spots, but especially at first base.
In addition to the breakdowns and obvious flaws mentioned above, the Tigers have been horrific when it comes to producing clutch hits. Fielder's error wouldn't have mattered Wednesday if they hadn't blown so many opportunities at the plate, particularly a bases loaded, nobody out situation that produced zero runs in the eighth inning.
But I still think eventually the run production will be there, but it will nullified if the Cabrera, and particularly Fielder, don't perform better defensively.
It's not like the Tigers have options to change the way they are setup. This is the bed they made when they signed Prince Fielder, and while he is a tremendous hitter, it's been painfully watching them sleep in it defensively.
What I didn't anticipate was Prince Fielder's struggles at first. He has been terrible there the last week (three errors, all costly). These are the numbers. They speak for themselves. And nobody can defend these stats based on "the reason they make so many errors is because of their range and they get to a lot of balls...."
- Both Fielder and Cabrera have six errors, one behind the American League leader regardless of position, Baltimore Orioles second baseman Robert Andino.
- There are only 10 players in the AL with six or more errors.
- Besides Fielder, no AL first baseman has six errors or five errors. Only one AL first baseman has four errors (Toronto's Adam Lind). Only one AL first baseman has three (Baltimore's Chris Davis). The rest have two or fewer.- Fielder's .983 fielding percentage ranks at the bottom of those with enough chances to be listed on the MLB.com's stats site. No other first baseman listed is below .991. Cabrera's .946 fielding percentage is last among AL third basemen.
- Last year, Cabrera led AL first baseman in errors with 13 (by three) and had the worst fielding percentage at the position, .991. Fielder's fielding percentage this season is considerably worse (.983) and he is on pace to make 23 errors this season.
- The timing of Fielder's errors have been costly, especially the last two. Last Thursday vs Minnesota, he missed a throw to first base by pitcher Doug Fister for an error. The hitter, Josh Willingham, ended up on third and scored when Justin Morneau grounded out. It made a 3-0 game in the fifth inning a 4-0 game. The Tigers rallied late in the game, but lost it, 4-3. The miscue directly led to the deciding run
- Wednesday, with runners on a second and third and one out in the eighth inning of a 2-2 game, Travis Hafner of the Indians hit a routine grounder to first. Fielder threw the ball into the dirt, Tigers catcher Alex Avila couldn't hold it and Jason Kipnis scored the go-ahead run. The next hitter, Carlos Santana flew out, but instead of ending the inning, because of Fielder's error, it resulted in a sacrifice fly.
Early in the season, when people would compare this team to 2008's disaster, I didn't see it. But honestly, the last week, the Tigers have played the exact same way.
Their fielding has been awful, and it's started at the two corner spots, but especially at first base.
In addition to the breakdowns and obvious flaws mentioned above, the Tigers have been horrific when it comes to producing clutch hits. Fielder's error wouldn't have mattered Wednesday if they hadn't blown so many opportunities at the plate, particularly a bases loaded, nobody out situation that produced zero runs in the eighth inning.
But I still think eventually the run production will be there, but it will nullified if the Cabrera, and particularly Fielder, don't perform better defensively.
It's not like the Tigers have options to change the way they are setup. This is the bed they made when they signed Prince Fielder, and while he is a tremendous hitter, it's been painfully watching them sleep in it defensively.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Fundamentally, Detroit Tigers biggest issue is just bad baseball
You can debate the merits of the "it's early" and you must "be patient" or anything other sports cliches about the Tigers all you want.
Yet, I will guarantee this, they will not "snap out of it" if they don't play better fundamental baseball than did during their 5-3 loss at Cleveland Tuesday.
- In the first inning, the Tigers didn't turn a routine double play ball hit by Indians' second baseman Jason Kipnis. Now, Kipnis has good speed and hustled on the play (sound fundamental baseball, by the way), and the ball was not hit really hard. But Kipnis isn't Usain Bolt, either. The double play should have been turned. Lets put it this way, the Rangers would have turned it. Routinely.
Ramon Santiago wasn't getting to the ball and then to Jhonny Peralta, and the relay throw to first wasn't particularly swift. It led directly to a run later in the inning, one that wouldn't have been scored. Lack of double plays is a major problem for the Tigers. They are last in the Major League with 26. It really hurts pitchers like Porcello and tonight's starter Doug Fister because they rely so much on ground ball outs. Later. Brennan Boesch dropped a line drive that led to another unnecessary run.
- The Tigers haven't played well defensively behind Porcello all season (the Brandon Inge debacle at second base vs. Texas very early in the season, Prince Fielder dropping a routine throw in the first inning of his last start vs. Minnesota, more Keystone Kops Tuesday). Yet, Porcello didn't help his own cause. When you have a team like the Indians just taking off running on pitchers like they did Tuesday, it's disturbing. Then, after Michael Brantley, who does have good speed, stole a base ridiculously easily off Porcello, he proceeded to tossed to first with the lead-footed Casey Kotchman there - and threw the ball away for an error. This issue of not holding runners must be paramount with manager Jim Leyland, and addressed immediately. Teams are taking advantage of the Tigers like they are a Little League team. And it not he catchers. Both Tiger catchers throw well.
- Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez walked six hitters. That was handing the Tigers the game. Other than one big hit, a 3-run homer by Alex Avila, the Tigers didn't nothing to take advantage of these gifts.
- It was also disappointing, with two runners on in the ninth inning and the game on the line, that neither Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder came through. But if it weren't for blunders earlier in the game, it would have, at minimum, been tied.
- The lumbering Tigers aren't going to win games with their fielding, but they can't afford to lose them, either. They must begin to make routine plays and execute the fundamental elements of the game much better, or this long spring will become a tortuous summer.
I have a commentary on "The Oakland Press News at Noon," a new feature at theoaklandpress.com. This one is on Michigan and Michigan State football:
Yet, I will guarantee this, they will not "snap out of it" if they don't play better fundamental baseball than did during their 5-3 loss at Cleveland Tuesday.
- In the first inning, the Tigers didn't turn a routine double play ball hit by Indians' second baseman Jason Kipnis. Now, Kipnis has good speed and hustled on the play (sound fundamental baseball, by the way), and the ball was not hit really hard. But Kipnis isn't Usain Bolt, either. The double play should have been turned. Lets put it this way, the Rangers would have turned it. Routinely.
Ramon Santiago wasn't getting to the ball and then to Jhonny Peralta, and the relay throw to first wasn't particularly swift. It led directly to a run later in the inning, one that wouldn't have been scored. Lack of double plays is a major problem for the Tigers. They are last in the Major League with 26. It really hurts pitchers like Porcello and tonight's starter Doug Fister because they rely so much on ground ball outs. Later. Brennan Boesch dropped a line drive that led to another unnecessary run.- The Tigers haven't played well defensively behind Porcello all season (the Brandon Inge debacle at second base vs. Texas very early in the season, Prince Fielder dropping a routine throw in the first inning of his last start vs. Minnesota, more Keystone Kops Tuesday). Yet, Porcello didn't help his own cause. When you have a team like the Indians just taking off running on pitchers like they did Tuesday, it's disturbing. Then, after Michael Brantley, who does have good speed, stole a base ridiculously easily off Porcello, he proceeded to tossed to first with the lead-footed Casey Kotchman there - and threw the ball away for an error. This issue of not holding runners must be paramount with manager Jim Leyland, and addressed immediately. Teams are taking advantage of the Tigers like they are a Little League team. And it not he catchers. Both Tiger catchers throw well.
- Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez walked six hitters. That was handing the Tigers the game. Other than one big hit, a 3-run homer by Alex Avila, the Tigers didn't nothing to take advantage of these gifts.
- It was also disappointing, with two runners on in the ninth inning and the game on the line, that neither Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder came through. But if it weren't for blunders earlier in the game, it would have, at minimum, been tied.
- The lumbering Tigers aren't going to win games with their fielding, but they can't afford to lose them, either. They must begin to make routine plays and execute the fundamental elements of the game much better, or this long spring will become a tortuous summer.
I have a commentary on "The Oakland Press News at Noon," a new feature at theoaklandpress.com. This one is on Michigan and Michigan State football:
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Monday, May 21, 2012
Why the smart play at trade deadline for Tigers will likely be trading top prospects Castellanos and Brantly
Despite trading away several top prospects in recent years, the Tigers' farm system is not bare. When the trade deadline arrives, they will have options to deal other teams will undoubtedly covet.
Third baseman Nick Castellanos has been much-celebrated as a prospect - and with good reason. He has the makings of a premier major league hitter. He is big and has plate coverage and will develop power. At 6-4, he has the type of frame that is only going to gain strength. He has an OPS of nearly 1,000 at high-A ball for Lakeland this season at just 20, which is very impressive considering his youth. But he's a third baseman. Miguel Cabrera is the Tigers' third baseman, in his prime and signed through 2016. Prince Fielder forced the move of Cabrera to third. He is also in his prime and signed for nine years. There is no place for Castellanos to play. It would be a stretch to make him an outfielder or full time DH. He played shortstop in amateur ball when he was young, but he struggles at third defensively with errors (.915 fielding percentage so far in the minor leagues). He has already outgrown shortstop physically. Common sense dictates the Tigers could add significantly to their current club if they are willing to part with Castellanos.
Another prospect who is emerging and will bring value at the trade deadline is Rob Brantly. He is a left-handed hitting catcher - a premium commodity - who consistently makes contact and is improving defensively. Alex Avila, the Tigers' All Star catcher, is 25. The Tigers have some depth at catcher. Their first pick in last year's draft, James McCann, is a catcher. He is considered the superior defensive catcher to Brantly.
The decision to trade top prospects is a difficult one. There are times when clubs get burned. The Tigers won a division title because of getting Doyle Alexander. The Braves became a powerhouse club for many years after that because they got John Smoltz back in the deal. Outfielder Andre Ethier leads the National League in RBI. The Dodgers got him in a trade with Billy "Money Ball" Beane and Oakland in 2005 for malcontent outfielder Milton Bradley (Yeah, I never stop exposing the myth that is Billy Beane and "Moneyball.")
But the Tigers haven't been burned too badly in this area. I thought they might when they gave up their top position prospect, third baseman Francisco Martinez, and top minor league reliever, Chance Ruffin, for Doug Fister last summer. I was wrong. Both those players are struggling mightily in the minor leagues for Seattle, while Fister has been terrific for the Tigers. Cameron Maybin was a great prospect. He has become an average major league player. Pitcher Jair Jurrjens, dealt to the Braves, has panned out the best of the younger players the Tigers have moved in recent years, but he's been up and down in regard to performance because of injury issues.
What a team shouldn't do, is trade top prospects from areas they are lacking depth. In the case of Castellanos and Brantly, that would not be true if the Tigers moved them.
Anything less than an appearance in the World Series would be disappointing for the Tigers this year. With the stakes that high, they should trade their top prospects if there is value to fill holes in return. It's all about winning now for the Tigers, but it wouldn't be mortgaging the future, either, because of the way their major league club is currently set.
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Third baseman Nick Castellanos has been much-celebrated as a prospect - and with good reason. He has the makings of a premier major league hitter. He is big and has plate coverage and will develop power. At 6-4, he has the type of frame that is only going to gain strength. He has an OPS of nearly 1,000 at high-A ball for Lakeland this season at just 20, which is very impressive considering his youth. But he's a third baseman. Miguel Cabrera is the Tigers' third baseman, in his prime and signed through 2016. Prince Fielder forced the move of Cabrera to third. He is also in his prime and signed for nine years. There is no place for Castellanos to play. It would be a stretch to make him an outfielder or full time DH. He played shortstop in amateur ball when he was young, but he struggles at third defensively with errors (.915 fielding percentage so far in the minor leagues). He has already outgrown shortstop physically. Common sense dictates the Tigers could add significantly to their current club if they are willing to part with Castellanos.Another prospect who is emerging and will bring value at the trade deadline is Rob Brantly. He is a left-handed hitting catcher - a premium commodity - who consistently makes contact and is improving defensively. Alex Avila, the Tigers' All Star catcher, is 25. The Tigers have some depth at catcher. Their first pick in last year's draft, James McCann, is a catcher. He is considered the superior defensive catcher to Brantly.
The decision to trade top prospects is a difficult one. There are times when clubs get burned. The Tigers won a division title because of getting Doyle Alexander. The Braves became a powerhouse club for many years after that because they got John Smoltz back in the deal. Outfielder Andre Ethier leads the National League in RBI. The Dodgers got him in a trade with Billy "Money Ball" Beane and Oakland in 2005 for malcontent outfielder Milton Bradley (Yeah, I never stop exposing the myth that is Billy Beane and "Moneyball.")
But the Tigers haven't been burned too badly in this area. I thought they might when they gave up their top position prospect, third baseman Francisco Martinez, and top minor league reliever, Chance Ruffin, for Doug Fister last summer. I was wrong. Both those players are struggling mightily in the minor leagues for Seattle, while Fister has been terrific for the Tigers. Cameron Maybin was a great prospect. He has become an average major league player. Pitcher Jair Jurrjens, dealt to the Braves, has panned out the best of the younger players the Tigers have moved in recent years, but he's been up and down in regard to performance because of injury issues.
What a team shouldn't do, is trade top prospects from areas they are lacking depth. In the case of Castellanos and Brantly, that would not be true if the Tigers moved them.
Anything less than an appearance in the World Series would be disappointing for the Tigers this year. With the stakes that high, they should trade their top prospects if there is value to fill holes in return. It's all about winning now for the Tigers, but it wouldn't be mortgaging the future, either, because of the way their major league club is currently set.
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