Tuesday, July 29, 2014

My thoughts on the Tigers' 11-4 loss to the White Sox Tuesday night

On Joakim Soria's home debut with Tigers tonight vs. White Sox

Soria: Not a good night
There are a lot of reasons is this game has turned out to be a disaster. The biggest, obviously, is Soria's awful performance. It was weird. He had nothing on his pitches. His fastball was flat, but his slider was particularly ineffective. Adam Dunn hit an 84 mph pitch a mile. It didn't move. Must have been a bad slider. I would hope so. I don't if it will mean much about Soria in the long run, but it should be remembered the one thing he really hasn't done in his career is pitch under the pressure of a pennant race. He didn't react well to it tonight at the key moment of an important game.

Thoughts after five innings White Sox, Tigers Tuesday night

Quintana: Been tough
- The Tigers' base running is starting to become a problem. Eugenio Suarez was picked off first base in the last two games of the Angels' series, and Andrew Romine tonight. There is no excuse for it. None. Especially considering how much the Tigers have been struggling offensively since the All Star break.
- Home plate umpire Clint Fagan's strike zone is all over the place. His call for a strike on Adam Eaton on Anibal Sanchez's change up in the fifth inning was brutal. Oh, and by the way, that FOX track box is off center tonight. Gosh, it's inaccurate.
- Yeah, the Tigers need J.D. Martinez's bat to wake up. It did with a triple. He has great power. He is one of those rare hitters who drives extra base hits, even if he doesn't center it perfectly. I think his recent slump was an aberration, not a trend.
- We'll see about Anibal Sanchez. He's been OK tonight, but the sixth and seventh innings have been his Waterloo recently. Will it be different tonight?
- I don't know what's more amazing, the Tigers have nine hits off a tough lefty, Jose Quintana, tonight in just five innings, or they only two runs to show for it.

On Ndamukong Suh, the Detroit Lions and the concept of "we" vs. "me"

If the announcement "shocked the world" it should not have. The Lions would make Ndamukong Suh the highest paid defensive tackle in the NFL. They would top the 5-year, $55 million deal the Bengals gave Geno Atkins.
They have tabled their contract negotiations with Suh simply because the process isn't there.
The distraction reasoning given by the Lions' brass? Yeah, like it isn't still a factor.
It doesn't matter what the Lions offer Suh short of the ridiculous, it's clear he isn't going to sign it. It has always been the case.
The Lions kicked the can down the road by restructuring Suh's contract to free salary cap money to sign free agents such as Reggie Bush and Glover Quinn. It was a good plan except:
 A) After getting to 6-3 and appearing ready to make a playoff push in 2013, the Lions collapsed and missed the playoffs.
B) When it became time for the Lions to sign Suh to an extension this off season and be in really good shape for the future, Suh not only didn't sign, he didn't negotiate.
Suh is about attention, from the talk about being "a once-in-a-generation talent" from his past representative, and the marketing of him as a brand name. It's tied at 3-3 for Suh's reality TV show and Pro Bowl appearances.
Ndamukong Suh: About "me" not "we"
What is a bigger coup for Suh than unrestricted free agency? It'd be a marketing and financial bonanza for him. He could upgrade from "The Choice" and "Splash" to "The Bachelor" and "Dancing With the Stars."
Can you blame him? Well, it depends. It is turning his back on the Lions and subsequently their fans. It held back the team greatly in free agency this off season. It leaves the franchise holding the bag with nearly $10 million in "dead" salary cap money in the future, if Suh, as expected, leaves.
It shows the importance of this season for the Lions. They will have Suh, Stafford and Calvin Johnson in their prime likely for  the last time. They have plenty of good parts around them.
You have to admire Suh in a way. People talk about the NFL like its a "team" game, but ultimately it's a "me" game. There is enormous risk for players. We've heard a lot lately from past players about that, and how they feel duped.  It is the most brutal of all team sports by its very nature.
On the other hand, Suh is vastly overrated and overhyped. He is an excellent defensive tackle, arguably the best in the game since Atkins, who has been far more productive, was hurt. But he hasn't transcended the limitations of his position and been a truly impactful player since his rookie season.
The idea of him as a marketing icon and receiving QB money at this point is laughable - unless he plays this season like he did as a rookie.
The Lions desperately need that from Suh in '14. The NFL is the ultimate "live in the moment" league.
At this point, who cares about '15?
Especially for the Lions, it's all about now.

This is my 3-part series "Baseball Scouting, Past and Present: How it has changed, how it has remained the same:

Part 1 - http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140723/the-story-of-lou-dannunzio-and-how-a-scout-shaped-detroit-tigers-history

Part 2 - http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140724/even-greatly-enhanced-by-math-and-science-baseball-scouting-remains-an-art-form

Part 3 - http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140725/process-of-baseball-talent-evaluation-changed-but-remains-about-the-decision

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

On the Tigers trading for Rangers closer Joakim Soria

It was a steep prize the Tigers paid to acquire bullpen closer Joakim Soria from the Texas Rangers Wednesday night. Pitcher Jake Thompson is a  high-end prospect, a 6-4, 235-pound right-hander with a power arm. I did the Baseball America top-rated prospects list for many years on the Tigers, and based on right now, he'd either be No.1 or No.2 on my list of Tigers' prospects. He's got outstanding "stuff" and to be that successful in high-
Joakim Soria: Should be worth
A ball at Lakeland at 20 (3.2 years younger than average age of player in the league) is a sign of a high ceiling. I also would have put Corey Knebel in my Top 5. He has a good arm, a big curveball and a bit of a quirky motion. It's possible he will be solid a big league closer down the road or a good late-inning guy.
But Soria, even though he has never closed for a contender, should help the Tigers immensely. He is missing a lot more bats this season. If he's not the Tigers' closer, eventually replacing struggling veteran Joe Nathan, he definitely will help the late-inning match up game in the postseason, which is so important. His contract his reasonable. There is a club option for $7 million next season with a $500,000 buyout.
As for the planning part, the window of opportunity will never be wider for the Tigers. There is no dominant team in MLB this season. Max Scherzer is about to become a free agent, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander aren't getting any younger, Certainly Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter aren't, either.
Sure, ultimately this trade could come back to haunt the Tigers. We all the John Smoltz deal in this town, right? Chances are it won't, though. The idea for teams is to get in a position to be able to go for it. I can't blame the Tigers for doing so under the circumstances. Actually, I commend them for the deal. No risk, no reward.

My column. The story of Lou D'Annunzio and how a scout changed the course of Detroit Tigers' history: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140723/the-story-of-lou-dannunzio-and-how-a-scout-shaped-detroit-tigers-history

My Column. Matthew Stafford, the Detroit Lions and why there are no more excuses: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140721/matthew-stafford-detroit-lions-and-why-there-are-no-more-excuses-pat-caputo-says?source=most_viewed

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

The predicament the Detroit Tigers must face with Joe Nathan

No "certainty" for this scene in postseason

It went just fine for Joe Nathan and the Tigers Monday at Arizona. The Tigers' bullpen set up perfectly to protect starter Justin Verlander. Al Alburquerque got Arizona's best hitter Paul Goldschmidt to ground into a force to get out of a jam in the seventh, Joba Chamberlain and Nathan pitched the scoreless eighth and ninth innings, protecting a one-run lead and preserving the Tigers' second victory in a row. Cleveland lost. The Tigers are now back to 6 1-2 games up in the AL Central again.
But, honestly, do you envision that bullpen holding up that way in the postseason against the A's or the Angels or the Orioles or the Blue Jays or the Yankees or the best of the National League? I don't.I think this weekend at the Angels will be telling, especially in regard to their bullpen with Huston Street compared to that of the Tigers. In my opinion, the Tigers definitely need an insurance policy for Nathan.
He's a "maybe" and a "perhaps" at this stage. He might get it done. Then again, he might not. It's kind of like a game of chance.
The Tigers shouldn't be fooled by one night, or a couple. They need to add as much "certainty" to the equation as possible.

My column. Matthew Stafford, the Lions and why there are no more excuses: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140721/matthew-stafford-detroit-lions-and-why-there-are-no-more-excuses-pat-caputo-says

My column. Why the Tigers can't win the World Series without making significant moves at the trade deadline: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140720/detroit-tigers-cant-win-world-series-without-significant-trade-deadline-moves-pat-caputo-says

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Thoughts after 5 1-2 innings Indians, Tigers Sunday

- Drew Smyly appears back on track today. His command is very good. His breaking ball is better and he is setting it up well by spotting his fastball. A very good outing when the Tigers needed it most. He did a terrific job of pitching out of trouble in the sixth.
Drew Smyly: Sharp so far
- The home run by Torii Hunter was big. It gave the Tigers a little bit of a cushion and could serve to take some pressure off their bullpen. It was also the first time in this series the Tigers have slugged the ball at all. Cleveland beat them decisively with the home run ball in the first three games of the series.
- When runners are on second and third with two outs, the Tigers need Miguel Cabrera to produce. His strike out to end the fifth might prove to be costly. the Tigers could used the extra runs, again, given the current state of their bullpen.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Hey, great for Derek Jeter, but what about Tram and Lou?

Lou and Tram: Still no justice
It was a touching tribute to Derek Jeter last night at the All Star Game. I couldn't help but think, though, he was a 10-year-old kid in Kalamazoo in 1984 when the Tigers won the World Series, and how Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker have been discarded by baseball history. Jeter will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. A slam dunk. Yet, in terms of WAR (Baseball-Reference.com version), he is just slightly ahead of Trammell (93rd all time at 70.4) and slightly behind Whitaker (77th all-time at 74.9) among all-time great MLB players. Jeter is 87th all-time at 72.1.
It does make you wonder if Tram and Lou played in New York, how different the perception of their careers would have been. Jeter is going to get a monument at Yankee Stadium. Tram and Lou can't even get a statue at Comerica Park.
Whitaker didn't even get named on the necessary five percent of ballots to remain in consideration after his first year. Trammell doesn't even close each year. Sure seems like an injustice to me, especially when juxtaposed to the iconic status Jeter has, justifiably, been given.

My column. Six reasons the Tigers are sitting pretty at the All Star break: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140713/six-reasons-the-detroit-tigers-are-sitting-pretty-at-all-star-break-pat-caputo-says?source=most_viewed

Monday, July 14, 2014

Justin Verlander, velocity (or lack of it) and what it means

This FanGraphs velocity chart on Justin Verlander http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=8700&position=&pitch=FA displays vividly what we knew all along:
Justin Verlander's velocity is significantly down.
And mot of his pitching statistics, across the board, are up. Verlander is 31. He has thrown so many pitches down through the years as kind of the lone "workhorse" remaining among MLB starting pitchers of his era.
Does it mean his career overall is on a downward track. I'm not so sure.
Justin Verlander:  It's puzzling
Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Bert Blylevin, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling are among the many top MLB starting pitchers, who had their struggles in their early 30s, either in regard to effectiveness or injury, and bounced back strongly. They weren't necessarily changed pitchers from fireballers to soft tossers, either, after they slumped at a certain age.
I don't know if the core surgery Verlander had this off season is a culprit for his drop this season in comparison to the 2014 postseason when he was incredibly effective.
It does seem like every thing about the way he pitches these days is out of whack. His location with his fastball is way off. There is little snap with his breaking ball. His changeup doesn't look like the same pitch. It's more than lack of velocity, which seems to be more of a case of aiming the ball for accuracy because of lack of command.
If there is no arm- or shoulder related injury, I do think Verlander will bounce back. But there is no denying his lack of effectiveness. A 4.88 ERA? Yeah, Verlander struggled last season with a 6.48 ERA in May, but his ERA at All-Star break was 3.50. Verlander didn't rack up high strikeout totals last season, either, although he reached double digits twice in his final two regular season appearance, in only six innings, each for the first time since May. Maybe we'll see a repeat of last season, but it's certainly no given.
It would be naïve to believe this is a repeat of last season. It's clearly worse.

My column. Six reasons the Tigers are sitting pretty at the All Star break: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140713/six-reasons-the-detroit-tigers-are-sitting-pretty-at-all-star-break-pat-caputo-says

My column. What it would take to save Brady Hoke's job as football coach at Michigan: http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20140712/what-would-be-enough-to-save-brady-hoke-as-head-football-coach-of-michigan-wolverines-writes-pat-caputo?source=most_viewed

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Thoughts after 7 innings Dodgers, Tigers Wednesday

Max Scherzer vs. Dodgers
- I thought it was a terrific play in the fifth inning when Rajai Davis, on second base with nobody out, stole third. That's when the running game and stealing third base can really come into play. The move didn't work, though, when Austin Jackson struck out and Ian Kinsler couldn't get the ball to the right side or out of the infield, and Torii Hunter bounced out. More times than not, though, that type of aggression will work for the Tigers with Davis, Kinsler or Jackson on the bases.
- The days of Matt Kemp being a truly great player appear to be over. Max Scherzer retired him remarkably easily to end the sixth inning with a runner on third. His OPS is under .800 and his WAR is minus 0.9. He has looked slow and lumbering in the field. Thing is, Kemp isn't even 30.
- It's been awhile since the Tigers' bullpen has been tested in a really close game. It will be today. Will it pass? I have to be honest, I'm not so sure. Scherzer threw 101 pitches through 7.

Why Don Kelly's RBI single in the first Wednesday off Zack Greinke wasn't a fluke

Don Kelly had a two-out, RBI single during the first inning Wednesday off Dodgers' starter Zack Greinke. It appears on the surface to be a fluke considering Kelly is one of MLB's worst hitters and Greinke one of the better pitchers.
It wasn't. Kelly had actually had some success in the past against Greinke, going 3-for-8 entering the game. Oddly, he has similar success against a tough right-hander with the Indians, Justin Masterson. He has a career OPS of 1.230 against Masterson. Why? Because the one pitch Kelly can hit is a low inside fastball, especially a hard two-seamer. For most hitters, it's a difficult pitch, actually an outpitch for right-handers against left-handers. Yet, for forever reason, it's the one pitch Kelly can rake consistently.
It's similar repertoire to what other pitchers Kelly has had success against like Edwin Jackson.