Thursday, September 22, 2011

Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland starting Justin Verlander on short rest in ALDS wouldn't only be ridiculous, but irresponsible

I think uproar about Tiger manager Jim Leyland's decision to not pitch Justin Verlander on short rest in the American League Division Series is ridiculous.
You have to consider Verlander, who will make his final start of the regular season Saturday, will likely throw 250 innings or more this season (he is at 244 now). The last American League pitcher to do that was Roy Halladay in 2003 for Toronto. The next two seasons, Halladay was limited to 19 and 21 starts because of shoulder problems. He was 8-8 with a 4.20 ERA in 2004 at roughly the same age period Verlander now. No other American League pitcher - more difficult than the National League because of the DH - has thrown 250 innings since 1998.
If the Tigers advance to the World Series, there is a good chance Verlander will throw at least 40 innings in the postseason. That he will be over 290 for the year (more than 300 counting spring training). Throwing him out of his routine that early in the postseason would not only be ridiculous, but irresponsible.
Verlander is owed $20 million per season for each of the next three years. There is also the investment to consider - protecting it.
The worst argument for this comes from oldtimers about Mickey Lolich in the 1968 World Series when they point out he won Game 7 on two days rest.
Lolich threw only 220 innings that season. There was no DH. Only one postseason series. The mound was five inches higher than it is now. Totally different cirucmstances and time. Doesn't equate.
And it would be different if it is the World Series. Then pitch Verlander, maybe, on shorter rest. But doing so in the opening round is a recipe for disaster.

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